How to Make Decisions When You Cannot See into the Future

I recently had a meeting with my investment advisor, and I asked him to “bombproof” my portfolio. He got a chuckle out of that! While there are ways to prepare for different scenarios, there isn’t a way to “bombproof” the decisions we make in our investments. Likewise, there isn’t a way to bombproof our leadership decisions either. Uncertainty is at an extraordinarily heightened level for leaders right now: What will be the long-term direction of interest rates? Will there be a recession, and if so, how bad? Will inflation get tamped down or explode? Will the threats of war become a reality? Yet, even in the midst of doubt, leaders need to be decisive and courageous enough to make those decisions without a guarantee of success. Here are five ways leaders can make decisions even when they are in the fog of uncertainty.

1. Know your personality.

There is no one right personality type for a leader. God uniquely wires each of us, and there are strengths and weaknesses to how we lead within our uniqueness. For example, some leaders are hyper-cautious. They make decisions methodically, cautiously, and slowly. Other leaders make decisions quickly and decisively. Both of these approaches can be either great or not so great depending on the circumstances being faced. As leadership coaches and advisors, our team at The Center Consulting Group has consistently seen this to be true: the more you know yourself, the more you can safeguard yourself and your organization from the limitations inherent in your personality.

2. Assess the risk of delay.

While making an impulsive decision is risky, we often fail to calculate the risk that comes with delaying. In other words, some leaders hold their organizations hostage with extreme fear and caution. Sometimes seeking out more information, doing more “research,” and taking a wait-and-see approach is nothing more than what Edwin Friedman referred to as a leader’s failure of nerve. A leader’s inaction can feed anxiety and create a toxic petri dish for the multiplication of dysfunction. A leader’s delay can sometimes be presented as noble and wise, but as Winston Churchill noted, World War II emerged because “the malice of the wicked was reinforced by the weakness of the virtuous.” While delaying may be the better part of wisdom in certain circumstances, it can also be damaging in others.

3. Have the right team of advisors.

Team members, board members, spouses, leadership coaches, and professional advisors can all add value to a leader in a time of foggy circumstances. Most drivers know the challenges of driving through dense fog, heavy rain, or a whiteout snowstorm. It is brutal and easy to lose your perspective. Having a “spotter” with you can make the difference between staying on the road or drifting off it. Wise advisors can provide perspective, help you test assumptions, provide alternatives, and ultimately give you greater confidence when making a decision when you lack complete information or perfect security that you are making the right call.

4. Learn faster.

I recently read the biography of a former Army Ranger sniper. They train hard, practice often, and study for many months. But when a real firefight was happening, they had to learn quickly. Who is shooting? Where is the enemy? Where are your team members? What are your surroundings? Do you have the authority to engage? Do you need to call in support? All under extreme pressure. While it is nice to have the luxury of time to learn more before making decisions, sometimes we don’t. It’s not that we don’t need to learn, but that we just need to learn faster. I remember reading that a pilot has around 38 seconds to learn and decide in order to avoid a crash. That’s called learning faster.

5. Correct mistakes.

One of the top reasons leaders postpone hard decisions is the fear of making a mistake. But that is unrealistic – consider athletes, accountants, surgeons, lawyers, pastors, police, business leaders, and politicians! Every leader will be in a position where they face complex circumstances without complete clarity, and they will eventually make a mistake. Richard Branson, the billionaire founder of the Virgin Group, accurately said, “One thing is certain in business. You and everyone around you will make mistakes.” The best a leader can do is correct a mistake once it is discovered. Made a bad hire? Launched a new product or service that is failing? Be courageous enough to acknowledge it and correct it.

Contact us to learn how our experienced coaches can help you learn how to make better decisions in times of uncertainty.

Jay Desko is the President & CEO of The Center Consulting Group and brings experience in the areas of organizational assessment, leadership coaching, decision-making, and strategic questioning. Jay’s degrees include an M.Ed. in Instructional Systems Design from Pennsylvania State University and a Ph.D. in Organizational Behavior and Leadership from The Union Institute.